It definitely doesn’t happen often, but every once in awhile, my teams make offseason moves that leave me overflowing with optimism for the following season. I still remember where I was when I heard the Boston Celtics had traded for Kevin Garnett after also acquiring Ray Allen, launching the Big Three era that immediately produced a title. There have definitely been a few years the Green Bay Packers have engendered such optimism (though, their one Super Bowl title with Aaron Rodgers was actually not one of those years). But this is probably the first time I’ve felt this kind of breathless anticipation for a Baltimore Orioles season since maybe the first full season I ever followed them, 1997. As great as their run of relevance from 2012-2016 was, it was also somewhat bumpy and inconsistent, and I never quite knew when to suck up all the hopium or when to be more guarded.
One of the few downsides of taking a year off from the blog in 2023 was that I missed covering one of the greatest seasons in Orioles history. The team won over 100 games in a season for the first time since 1980, and went an astounding 91 straight regular season series in which they won at least one game, a streak that dates all the way back to catcher Adley Rutschman’s call-up from the minors at the end of May 2022. Baltimore chased down the Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL East division for the first time since 2014. Unfortunately, all the goodwill built up from the regular season ended with a thud when the Texas Rangers swept the Orioles in three games in the AL Division Series.
But there’s a sense that this team is just getting started. Great draft picks have led to the Orioles’ farm system overflowing with great prospects. Better yet, a lot of said prospects play the same positions, meaning they can be prime trade bait to fill any holes on a team’s roster. The Orioles took full advantage of that this offseason, pulling off one of the more impressive trades of the winter. The Orioles have a young infield, with Gunnar Henderson having just debuted and super-prospect Jackson Holliday on his way. Second baseman Jordan Westburg looks promising, and first base incumbent Ryan Mountcastle is still on the right side of 30. So they were perfectly comfortable with trading shortstop prospect Joey Ortiz along with occasional starting pitcher DL Hall to the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Corbin Burnes, the Brewers’ best pitcher. Starting pitching has been a weakness for the Orioles for almost as long as I’ve been a fan of theirs. I’d argue they haven’t had a true ace starter since Mike Mussina left in 2000. But Burnes has the potential to be all that and more. He probably has the best cutter in the majors, which he throws a little more than half the time. He mixes in a curveball, changeup, and slider to keep hitters guessing, and actually throws his fastball the least out of all his pitches.
With Burnes, I’d argue the Orioles have the best rotation in the AL East. The projected #2 starter, Kyle Bradish, broke out with a 2.83 ERA last year, finishing fourth in AL Cy Young voting (though underlying stats suggest he was a bit lucky). Bradish will begin the year on the disabled list with a somewhat ominous injury (sprained UCL) that the team will hope doesn’t get worse and he can return soon (last I checked, he seemed to be progressing well). The #3 slot will probably go to Grayson Rodriguez, whose full-season stats weren’t impressive because he struggled a bit in his initial call-up to the big club. But after a short retooling stint with the Norfolk Tides, he pitched basically just as well as Bradish, with a 2.58 ERA and 73 strikeouts. You know you’ve got some depth in your rotation when your fourth starter is a guy that has thrown a no-hitter. I refer of course to John Means, who didn’t pitch much last year as he was recovering from a UCL tear, but still posted a 2.66 ERA in 4 starts. Fifth starter Dean Kremer probably isn’t going to win many awards, but he’s a serviceable starter that is capable of shutting teams down when he’s on.
The Orioles’ bullpen suffered a big loss at the end of last year. Closer Felix Bautista, who I would argue was the best in the majors up to that point, had to undergo Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Baltimore brought in Craig Kimbrel on a one-year deal to serve as a bridge player until Bautista can return, most likely in 2025. Kimbrel used to be one of the best at his position, and he still posts solid save totals, with an ability to miss bats the way a closer should. He even was an All-Star last year. But age has eroded his game a little, as evidenced by his spectacular collapse for the Phillies in the playoffs last year. I’m inclined to think that is an anomaly, and he’ll at least be adequate in the interim.
Given that the Baltimore bullpen posted a 3.55 ERA last year (5th in MLB), Kimbrel will have some help. Chief among the relievers is Yennier Cano, who came out of nowhere to be the Orioles’ second All-Star pitcher behind a devastating fastball-changeup-slider combo. Cano did seem to wear down a bit late in the season, and the transition from setup man to temporary closer once Bautista got injured was awkward. I think he’ll thrive in his traditional role. Most of the other bullpen guys have ERAs clustered around 3.50, which means they’ve got decent middle reliever run-prevention ability. The only other standout is Danny Coulombe, who set a career high in strikeouts last year and looks like a potential star. The bullpen will also benefit from the return of Dillon Tate, a somewhat late bloomer who looked to be on the upswing before a flexor tendon injury left him unable to pitch in 2023.
As strong as the Orioles’ pitchers look, the real strength of the team lies in its position players. There are two main straws that stir the team’s offensive drink: catcher Adley Rutschman and third baseman Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman is the type of all-around offensive threat that should win an AL MVP award before his career is over. He’s got great on-base skills and flashes a surprising amount of power given the wear and tear of his position. He’s also proven to be a great leader in the locker room and has a great relationship with the pitching staff. He’s also one of the best pitch-framers and throwers at his position. Henderson profiles similarly, as he’s able to make solid contact at the plate far more often than not, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him hit 35 or even 40 home runs this year.
The Orioles have confirmed that shortstop Jackson Holliday will start the season in the minors, which seems suspicious to me given how teams have been manipulating young players’ service time in order to avoid having to pay them more down the road. But given how well he’s hitting in spring training, I have a feeling his stay in Norfolk will be short. Holliday is the top prospect in all of baseball and can do it all: hit for average, hit for power, field, throw, and run. He also excels at making in-game adjustments. Until he arrives, shortstop will be manned by Jorge Mateo, who is a great fielder and runs like Sonic the Hedgehog, but is limited at the plate. Second baseman Jordan Westburg is still looking for the power he showed in the minor leagues to translate to MLB, but he’s a solid fielder. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle rounds out the infield, and there were concerns last year that he’d evolve into an all-or-nothing slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber, but he was able to maintain a solid .328 on-base percentage to go along with his 18 home runs. He’s perfectly fine defensively.
The Orioles’ outfield is a more veteran group, but all of the starters are still arguably in their primes. Cedric Mullins will probably never replicate his great 2021, when he finished 9th in MVP voting despite playing for a terrible Orioles team. But he remains an above-average hitter and is capable of highlight-reel plays in center field when not injured. Anthony Santander is an outstanding extra-base hitter, ranking third in MLB with 41 doubles to go along with his 28 home runs and decent defense (though with limited range). Austin Hays has a great arm in left field and can mash fastballs, but breaking balls frequently beat him. The Orioles are absolutely loaded with outfield prospects, including Colton Cowser (who is having a monster spring despite not hitting well in his cup of coffee with the O’s last year), Heston Kjerstad (who can hit the ball hard), and Coby Mayo. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them supplant Hays or even Mullins (Tony Taters is probably safe). Hell, the Orioles could even trade one of them for pitching reinforcements if needed. Ryan O’Hearn will likely be the DH when Rutschman and Santander are in the field. O’Hearn was probably one of the biggest surprises for Baltimore last season, accumulating 1.2 Wins Above Replacement in only 112 games after the O’s acquired him from Kansas City last season.
Brandon Hyde’s winning the AL Manager of the Year last year felt like the culmination of a long journey in many ways. Hyde took over after Buck Showalter was let go following the 2018 season and was there for the entire rebuilding process that, thankfully, was shorter than anyone expected. But as any manager will tell you, the job is not done until the team wins it all. Hyde has solid tactical skills, and now that the team is finally out of the grip of the stingy Angelos family, the new ownership group led by David Rubenstein seems finally ready to spend some money to improve, which makes Hyde’s job easier.
So, in short, the Orioles really look like a powerhouse, with lots of talent in every area of the game, and that makes me super pumped for this baseball season. After breaking through with 101 wins last year with lots of young talent, it feels like the Orioles will be good for a long time, with at least one World Series title on the horizon. I’m not sure that title will come this year, though. Baltimore looks like the best team in the AL, so I’m going to pick them to make the World Series. But the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL have ridiculous stockpiles of talent that are just too loaded to deny at this point. Since the Dodgers have the longer and more recent record of blowing it in the playoffs, I’m going to go with the Braves to win it all. Such a series would be a personal dream of mine, as it would pit my favorite and second-favorite teams against each other. If I’m right and this happens, I really want to be in Camden Yards for one of the games, even if I have to sit in the nosebleed section.
The Jam 